APL 30-Day Early-Death Risk Calculator

Three-variable model for early risk stratification in ATRA/ATO-era acute promyelocytic leukemia.

Admission Predictors

Diagnosis-time values
years
x10^9/L
umol/L

Risk strata are derived from development-cohort quintiles: Q1 + Q2 low, Q3 + Q4 intermediate, Q5 high.

20%
Intermediate risk

Model quintile: Q4

0% 3.96% 6.27% 11.66% 22.01% 100%
-1.407 linear predictor
0.245 estimated odds
Model Formula logit(p) = -11.828 + 0.486 x log2(WBC+1) + 0.348 x (Age/10) + 1.682 x ln(Cr+1)

Risk Context

Low

Q1 + Q2. Lower model-predicted risk in the development cohort.

Intermediate

Q3 + Q4. Closer early observation may be reasonable.

High

Q5. Highest model-predicted risk stratum.