ADMISSION-TIME ASSESSMENT
Admission variables
Enter admission-time clinical values to estimate 30-day mortality risk.
years
×10⁹/L
µmol/L
The sliders show the intended input range. Values outside this range are extrapolated.
ACUTE PROMYELOCYTIC LEUKEMIA · ADMISSION-TIME ASSESSMENT
APL Early Death
Risk Calculator
A clinically validated prediction model to estimate 30-day mortality risk in newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia using three routinely available admission variables.
Externally validated clinical prediction model30-day early mortality
MODEL OUTPUT
Estimated 30-day mortality risk
Model estimate—
This prediction supports early risk stratification and should not replace clinical judgement.
LowIntermediateHigh
Q3Current risk group
—Linear predictor
—Estimated odds
SIMPLIFIED CLINICAL ASSESSMENT
Simplified bedside risk score
A simplified point-based score derived from the validated prediction model for rapid bedside risk stratification.
For rapid bedside stratification only; does not replace the full multivariable model or clinical judgement.
EVIDENCE SNAPSHOT
Built for the ATRA + ATO era
Developed and internally validated in a contemporary APL cohort, then evaluated in an independent external cohort without refitting.
- Development cohort
- 284 patients · 42 early deaths
- External validation cohort
- 140 patients · 14 early deaths
- Predictors
- Age · WBC count · Creatinine
Use at the point of admission
- For newly diagnosed adult APL patients at admission.
- Uses routinely available variables before early treatment complications occur.
- Triage support only; not a replacement for clinical decision-making.
This tool must not delay ATRA/ATO initiation, supportive care, infection treatment, ICU assessment, or local emergency pathways.
All calculations run locally in this browser. No patient data are uploaded or stored.