AAPL · CLINICAL PREDICTION MODEL

MODEL INFORMATION

APL 30-day early-death prediction model

Documentation for the externally validated clinical prediction model that underpins the bedside calculator.

Outcome30-day all-cause mortality
PopulationNewly diagnosed adult APL
PredictorsAge · WBC · Creatinine
External AUC0.817

LOCKED MODEL FORMULA

Individualized probability estimate

logit(p) = −11.828 + 0.486 × log₂(WBC + 1) + 0.348 × (Age / 10) + 1.682 × ln(Creatinine + 1)

WBC is entered in ×10⁹/L and creatinine in µmol/L. The calculator uses this locked equation without refitting.